This Week in Six Charts
- Inflation: CPI +3.71% YoY, Core CPI +2.76%, PCE +3.70%. The 10-year breakeven inflation rate is 2.33% — long-term inflation expectations are within the normal range.
- Labor market: Unemployment rate 4.10%, unchanged from last month; latest nonfarm payrolls +162K, 3-month average +71K.
- Growth: Real GDP grew at a 1.5% annualized rate last quarter (2026-04 data), +2.1% YoY. For high-frequency estimates, see Atlanta Fed GDPNow.
- Monetary policy: Fed funds effective rate at 3.88% (2026-09-23). Market-implied odds of the next move: see CME FedWatch.
- Rates & credit: 10Y-2Y spread at 0.26% — not inverted; high-yield spread at 2.73% — credit conditions remain benign.
- Liquidity: M2 +5.66% YoY, stock of $23,343B (2026-08).
Key Indicators
| Indicator | Latest | Source | Data date |
|---|
| CPI (YoY) | 3.71% | BLS → FRED | 2026-08-01 |
| Core CPI (YoY) | 2.76% | BLS → FRED | 2026-08-01 |
| PCE (YoY) | 3.70% | BEA → FRED | 2026-07-01 |
| Unemployment | 4.10% | BLS → FRED | 2026-08-01 |
| Nonfarm Payrolls (MoM) | +162K | BLS → FRED | 2026-08-01 |
| Real GDP (QoQ ann.) | 1.5% | BEA → FRED | 2026-04-01 |
| M2 (YoY) | 5.66% | Fed → FRED | 2026-08-01 |
| Fed Funds Rate | 3.88% | Fed → FRED | 2026-09-23 |
| HY Credit Spread | 2.73% | Fed → FRED | 2026-09-23 |
| 10Y-2Y Spread | 0.26% | Treasury → FRED | 2026-09-25 |
| 10Y Breakeven Inflation | 2.33% | Fed → FRED | 2026-09-25 |
| Yield Curve | 1MO: 3.99% / 3MO: 4.19% / 1: 4.49% / 2: 4.85% / 5: 4.99% / 10: 5.11% / 30: 5.40% | U.S. Treasury → FRED | 2026-09-25 |
Trends
CPI / Core CPI / PCE (YoY %)
Source: BLS (CPI) · BEA (PCE) via FRED
Unemployment Rate (%)
Source: BLS via FRED
Nonfarm Payrolls (Monthly Change)
Source: BLS via FRED
Real GDP (QoQ Annualized %)
Source: BEA via FRED · High-frequency estimates: Atlanta Fed GDPNow
M2 Money Supply (YoY %)
Source: Federal Reserve via FRED
High-Yield Credit Spread (%)
Source: Federal Reserve via FRED · Wider = more credit stress
Fed Funds Effective Rate (%)
Source: Federal Reserve via FRED · Rate odds: CME FedWatch
US Treasury Yield Curve
1M–30Y · Source: U.S. Treasury via FRED
10Y-2Y Term Spread (%)
Inversion has historically preceded recessions
10Y Breakeven Inflation (Market Expectation)
Source: Federal Reserve via FRED
Verify the Headlines Yourself
Every number above comes from primary official sources:
· FRED (fred.stlouisfed.org) — inflation, jobs, M2, credit spreads, Treasury yields in one place
· BLS (bls.gov) — CPI, PPI, payrolls, unemployment releases
· BEA (bea.gov) — GDP, PCE, personal income
· CME FedWatch (cmegroup.com) — market-implied Fed rate odds
· U.S. Treasury (home.treasury.gov) — official yield curve, 1M to 30Y
· Atlanta Fed GDPNow (atlantafed.org) — real-time GDP estimate